Looking at the final call polls for the constituency vote (below), they average out at 48.7% for the SNP, 21.3% for the Tories, 20.6% for Labour and 7.3% for the Lib Dems. Removing Savanta Comres’ ludicrous outlier, that becomes an average of 49.8% for the SNP, 20.6% for the Tories, 20.3% for Labour and 7.1% for the Lib Dems. The Greens average 1.1%, although they don’t register on some polls. Depending on which average you look at, it represents a swing of 2-3 points away from the unionist parties towards the SNP relative to 2016, and a 5-6 point swing to the SNP relative to the 2019 General Election. With that national environment in mind, the map above is my final, authoritative prediction - with three degrees of confidence.
NE Fife is not safe for the Libdems. Much of its majority came from tactical Tory students at St. Andrews Uni, who are still in England at the moment. There is also a significant number of students in the constituency voting at home who would have been voting in Edinburgh and Glasgow probably SNP who will now be voting SNP. The increase in postal voting which has hitherto favoured Lib Dems is now more inter generational and again should close the gap. I think this is a knife edge seat. Paradoxically the absence of student voters may lose the SNP central Edinburgh and Edinburgh South. I expect there to be no universality in swing at all from 2016. Rural seats will have a higher SNP vote than such a swing would suggest, and may see the two Dumfriessshire seats shift to SNP as well as NE Fife whereas the three non SNP Edinburgh seats may well be just out of reach.
NE Fife is not safe for the Libdems. Much of its majority came from tactical Tory students at St. Andrews Uni, who are still in England at the moment. There is also a significant number of students in the constituency voting at home who would have been voting in Edinburgh and Glasgow probably SNP who will now be voting SNP. The increase in postal voting which has hitherto favoured Lib Dems is now more inter generational and again should close the gap. I think this is a knife edge seat. Paradoxically the absence of student voters may lose the SNP central Edinburgh and Edinburgh South. I expect there to be no universality in swing at all from 2016. Rural seats will have a higher SNP vote than such a swing would suggest, and may see the two Dumfriessshire seats shift to SNP as well as NE Fife whereas the three non SNP Edinburgh seats may well be just out of reach.