Battleground seat profiles: Moray and Banffshire Here’s something to chew on. At the 2016 Holyrood election, the SNP won 46.5% of the popular vote, with which it managed to hold a lead of 23 points over the Tories in Banffshire & Buchan Coast and 9 points in Moray, but lose Eastwood by 4.5 points. Three years later at the 2019 General Election, the SNP won exactly 45% of the vote, with which it managed to win the latter’s coterminous constituency of East Renfrewshire with a margin of nearly 10 points, but lost the former equivalent constituency of Banff & Buchan by 10 points, and lost Moray by a single point. What this neatly demonstrates is that under the hood of fairly steady nationwide support for the SNP, drastic shifts have been taking place within the geographic coalition of the party. Its fortunes have blossomed in affluent suburban and strongly “Remain” voting areas, while falling back significantly in rural and/or coastal Eurosceptic regions. For that reason, universal swing is unlikely to give a very accurate picture of how these two types of constituencies will vote in May. The two foremost constituencies which are held by the SNP at Holyrood but by the Tories at Westminster are therefore the prime targets for this realignment to snap into place. That said, after taking a number of factors into consideration, I have reason to believe that both seats will stay with the SNP - albeit with significantly narrower margins than what an ordinary seat calculator would imply.
The Road to 65, Part II - 8/4/21
The Road to 65, Part II - 8/4/21
The Road to 65, Part II - 8/4/21
Battleground seat profiles: Moray and Banffshire Here’s something to chew on. At the 2016 Holyrood election, the SNP won 46.5% of the popular vote, with which it managed to hold a lead of 23 points over the Tories in Banffshire & Buchan Coast and 9 points in Moray, but lose Eastwood by 4.5 points. Three years later at the 2019 General Election, the SNP won exactly 45% of the vote, with which it managed to win the latter’s coterminous constituency of East Renfrewshire with a margin of nearly 10 points, but lost the former equivalent constituency of Banff & Buchan by 10 points, and lost Moray by a single point. What this neatly demonstrates is that under the hood of fairly steady nationwide support for the SNP, drastic shifts have been taking place within the geographic coalition of the party. Its fortunes have blossomed in affluent suburban and strongly “Remain” voting areas, while falling back significantly in rural and/or coastal Eurosceptic regions. For that reason, universal swing is unlikely to give a very accurate picture of how these two types of constituencies will vote in May. The two foremost constituencies which are held by the SNP at Holyrood but by the Tories at Westminster are therefore the prime targets for this realignment to snap into place. That said, after taking a number of factors into consideration, I have reason to believe that both seats will stay with the SNP - albeit with significantly narrower margins than what an ordinary seat calculator would imply.